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OCTOBER 25,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET:

MOMENTOUS NEWS – From CNN:  Washington (CNN) Chris Christie was asked to leave Amtrak's quiet car Sunday morning after passengers complained to a conductor about the New Jersey governor yelling at his security detail and into his cell phone, according to a rider.  But a woman who sat across from Christie said the incident was no big deal, and that the once the governor learned he was in the quiet car, he left quickly and courteously.  This is what passes for news on a slow-news day.  Tomorrow:  Donald Trump scheduled to sneeze.

WE ELECTED ONE TOO – From TIME:   A television comedian with no prior political experience won Guatemala’s presidential election by a landslide on Sunday, capitalizing on a corruption scandal that engendered national hostility toward the country’s ruling old guard.  Forty-six-year-old Jimmy Morales, who once played a hapless cowboy who accidentally becomes president, took more than 72% of the vote, easily defeating his opponent, former First Lady Sandra Torres, Reuters reported.  So what?  We elected a political comedian with very little prior experience in 2008, and then re-elected him in 2012. 

POLLING LATEST – From TIME:   GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson are tied for the top spot in the Iowa primary with 27% of the vote, according to a new CBS News poll, the latest to show the two competing for the nomination.  Two other CBS news polls released at the same time show Trump and Carson as the top two candidates in the early-voting states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, although Trump maintains a clear lead over Carson in both of those states. In South Carolina, Trump has 40% of the vote, compared with Carson’s 23%. In New Hampshire, Trump has 38% of the vote while Carson has 12%.  There are already rumblings, from Bill Kristol and others, about a third party should Trump actually win the GOP nomination. 

October 25, 2015       Permalink

THE WHITE FACTOR – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  It's a delicate subject, race.  But it's an inevitable subject in any election campaign.   Does Hillary Clinton have a race problem?  No, I don't mean the kind you're thinking.  Another kind of race problem.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

One finding in this week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll stands out for its potential to reframe the presidential election: The dramatically dim view that white voters—particularly white men—have of Hillary Clinton.

One prospect for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has been that she could expand President Barack Obama‘s winning coalition by retaining his firm hold on minority voters while improving on his weak showing among white voters. Mr. Obama won a mere 39% of white voters in 2012 – the smallest share of any winning presidential candidate in a two-person race.

Even if Democrats can’t match Mr. Obama’s strong 93% support among African-Americans, or 71% among Latinos, many strategists have argued, the party will be in good shape in 2016. Because minority voters are a growing presence in the electorate each cycle, the Democratic nominee can win a smaller share of those voters and still build a comfortable majority.

But what if the Democrats can’t match Mr. Obama’s meager share of white voters? What if they underperform his 39% showing?

That prospect has seemed remote. But as Mrs. Clinton steams toward her party’s nomination, it’s now a possibility that merits consideration—and one that could force some reworking of the electoral math.

As WSJ’s Peter Nicholas wrote on Tuesday, this week’s Journal/NBC News poll found that 64% of white men hold an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, compared with just 26% who see her in a positive light. That’s a gap of 38 points.

COMMENT:  We are now in the race, gender, and ethnicity generation.  Young people are taught to think in those terms.  But it's the proverbial two-edged sword.  Sometimes the group that seems to be fading gets good and angry, and turns up at the polls.  This could be Hillary's nightmare.

I sure hope so.

October 25, 2015       Permalink

HARD TO BELIEVE – AT 11:42 A.M. ET:  I am not a fan of Donald Trump.  Colorful yes.  Entertaining yes.  Presidential no.  But a new poll shows that most Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning next year's election.  My head is spinning.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters view Donald Trump as their strongest general election candidate, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights the sharp contrast between the party's voters and its top professionals regarding the billionaire businessman's ultimate political strength.

Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that's the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest.

"It's the lifelong establishment politicians on both sides that rub me the wrong way," said registered Republican Joe Selig, a 60-year-old carpenter from Vallejo, California. "I think Trump is more electable. He's strong. We need strength these days."

Trump and Carson are considered among the least electable general election candidates by the Republican Party's professionals, those who are in the business of helping candidates run campaigns and win elections.

Experienced political strategists note that winning a general election and winning the Republican nomination are often very different tasks. The GOP's most conservative voters — a group that is older and whiter than the nation as a whole — wield extraordinary influence in picking the nominee. Independents, moderate voters and minorities are far more important in general elections that draw many more people to the polls.

COMMENT:  Conventional wisdom seems out the window in this presidential cycle.  I still maintain that the Republican race will eventually shake out, and we'll see the numbers move toward other candidates, particularly Marco Rubio.  But I could be very wrong, and, given the upheaval in the party, I wouldn't bet on anything.

October 25,  2015     Permalink

VICIOUS OBAMA – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:  More attention should be paid to the viciousness of many of Obama's comments.  He demeans and slanders all the time, but the media doesn't seem to notice.  He also gets things wildly wrong.  But, hey, it's just another "narrative."  From John Hinderaker at Powerline:

Yesterday President Obama riffed in front of a Democratic audience, attacking the only enemies he cares about–Republicans. He described Republicans as “extreme,” and said, among other things, “Washington Republicans are alone on their own shrinking island.”

Put aside the hatefulness for a moment. Like so much that Obama says, this characterization is delusional. National Journal published this map of the United States, by Congressional district, after the 2014 election. It can easily be seen that one of our parties is turning into a “shrinking island,” but it isn’t the Republicans:

Currently, Republicans control the House by a whopping 247-188 margin, and the Senate 54-46. But those aren’t the most important numbers: at the state level, the GOP is more dominant than it has been for almost a century. As of 2015, 32 states have Republican governors, compared with only 18 that are governed by Democrats. Republicans control a stunning 68 of the nation’s 98 partisan legislative chambers, more than double the Democrats’ 30 chambers.

COMMENT:  It's true.  Take a look at the map that John refers to.  The Republican Party may poll as "unpopular," but individual Republicans do not.

However, the presidency is still the big prize.  If our side doesn't win the White House next year, any recovery from the Obama years would be lost, or at least postponed for a very long time.

October 25,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 24,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

AT LEAST SHE'S GRACIOUS – From Fox:   One of the New York judges who helped send a suspected cop killer to rehab instead of jail five months ago said Friday that the deadly shooting "breaks her heart" and that she is "truly sorry."  Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Patricia Nuñez told The New York Post that she will address the issue further at a Nov. 12 court date for the suspect, Tyrone Howard. The paper reported that Howard was freed despite a history of three felony sale convictions and the urging of prosecutors in the drug case.  Officer Randolph Holder's killing Tuesday has raised questions about the risks and potential shortcomings of drug courts, or drug diversion programs, which have been embraced nationwide as a way to ease jail overcrowding and reduce crime by attacking it at one of its sources: drug abuse.  At least the judge is being gracious about it, and understands that a justice system must correct its flaws.  Barack Obama, who openly embraces the "black lives matter" movement, has not even mentioned Officer Holder, who is black. 

GREAT MOMENTS IN MEDICINE – From Breitbart:   A new study shows that more than two-thirds — some 69 percent – of patients using anti-depressants do not actually meet the criteria for depressive disorder.  The study, which appears in the Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, finds that many individuals who are prescribed and take antidepressant medications may not actually have a depressive disorder, and that such drugs are often used by patients who do not meet the diagnostic criteria of depression.  According to the research, among the users of antidepressant medications, 69 percent never met the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD), and 38 percent also never met those for obsessive-compulsive disorder, panic disorder, social phobia, or generalized anxiety disorder – for which the antidepressant medications are sometimes prescribed.  Other factors, however, unrelated to depression, were found to be associated with the use of antidepressants.  “Caucasian ethnicity, recent or current physical problems (eg, loss of bladder control, hypertension, and back pain), and recent mental health facility visits were associated with antidepressant use in addition to mental disorders,” say the researchers.  I'd also add, from my scientific research, realization that Barack Obama is president and that Hillary Clinton might be.

WEIRD, REALLY WEIRD – From The Hill:  Democratic primary front-runner Hillary Clinton says the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) scandal is not as “widespread” a problem as coverage of the incident would indicate.  She said the problem is real, but cautioned that “it’s not been as widespread as it has been made out to be” on MSNBC’s “Rachel Maddow Show” on Friday.  The former first lady blamed Republicans for using the issue as part of an “ideological agenda” and said they want the VA to “fail.”  “Now nobody would believe that from the coverage you see, and the constant berating of the VA that comes from the Republicans, in – in part in pursuit of this ideological agenda that they have,” Clinton said.  Man, that is weird.  Everyone knows the VA is in serious trouble, and has let veterans down.  And there's Hillary, acting as if it's all part of the great right-wing conspiracy.  She's out of date and out of her mind.  Even Joe Biden warned last week about regarding political opponents as enemies, which gets you into Nixon territory.  I guess Hillary never got the memo...or the e-mail.

October 24, 2015       Permalink

IS THIS GOOD? – AT 11:53 A.M. ET:  The administration has just announced a new policy designed to reduce emphasis on testing in schools.  I think we have to look at this with two eyes.  A de-emphasis on testing may have merit, but it can easily turn into a "no standards" policy designed to "help" kids who just aren't doing the work.  From The New York Times: 

Faced with mounting and bipartisan opposition to increased and often high-stakes testing in the nation’s public schools, the Obama administration declared Saturday that the push had gone too far, acknowledged its own role in the proliferation of tests, and urged schools to step back and make exams less onerous and more purposeful.

Specifically, the administration called for a cap on assessment so that no child would spend more than 2 percent of classroom instruction time taking tests. It called on Congress to “reduce over-testing” as it reauthorizes the federal legislation governing the nation’s public elementary and secondary schools.

“I still have no question that we need to check at least once a year to make sure our kids are on track or identify areas where they need support,” said Arne Duncan, the secretary of education, who has said he will leave office in December. “But I can’t tell you how many conversations I’m in with educators who are understandably stressed and concerned about an overemphasis on testing in some places and how much time testing and test prep are taking from instruction.

COMMENT:  Okay, but I want details.  I agree that there is too much testing, that some tests are poorly constructed, and that political elements on the left have used the testing system to inject their ideas into children's heads.  At the same time, I want some measure of actual progress, or lack of it. 

We also need less Washington to go along with less testing. 

October 24, 2015       Permalink

A TOUGHER AMERICA? – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:   Field Marshal of the United States, including Massachusetts, Barack Obama will leave office in 15 months.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that he will leave a foreign policy in shambles.  Americans are expressing their concerns, and the polling seems to be having an effect on the presidential campaign trail.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

Americans don’t think Russia and Syria are a threat to the U.S. now, but believe they will be in the future, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The poll found 56% of those surveyed said Syria likely will be a threat to the U.S. “soon.” Another 23% said Syria is an immediate threat. Only 16% said Syria poses no threat.

With Russia, 60% said is poses a “long-term military threat” and 14% said it is an “immediate” military threat. Just 23% said Russia is not a military threat.

The poll results help explain the hawkish foreign policy positions being articulated on the 2016 presidential campaign trail. Republicans, with the exception of the struggling Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.), have pledged a tougher stance against both Russia and the Islamic State, which is operating in Syria and Iraq. Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton last month said President Barack Obama’s policy to train Syrian rebels failed.

The poll found most Americans agree with Mrs. Clinton about the president’s Syrian stance. Only 34% said they approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the Syrian conflict, compared to 54% who disagree. Among Democrats, 59% approve of Mr. Obama on Syria, while 28% disapprove. Republicans disapprove by an 81% to 10% clip.

Agreement on the long-term Russian and Syrian threats cut across party lines. For both Democrats and Republicans, 60% said Russia poses a long-term threat. Democrats were more likely to say Russia doesn’t pose a threat and Republicans more likely to say it poses an immediate threat.

COMMENT:  The real distinction may not be between Democrats and Republicans, but between mainstream Democrats and the leftist faction that has increasingly taken over the Democratic Party in the age of Obama.  Any potential Democratic presidential nominee has to take that faction into account, then pivot toward the center when the nomination is achieved.  I expect some of that from Hillary, who is known to be somewhat to the right of Obama on foreign policy.

October 24, 2015        Permalink

FBI CHIEF ON RISE IN CRIME – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  Statements by FBI Director James Comey are taking on increasing significance.  The FBI is, after all, investigating Hillary Clinton, and people understandably want to know whether the director is a straight shooter, or someone who will bend to political winds. 

From everything I've seem, Comey is a straight shooter.  But that's no guarantee that the results of the FBI probe into Hillary will end appropriately.  The FBI cannot indict.  It can only provide information to the Justice Department.  In the case of a figure like Hillary Clinton, it's probably that Attorney General Loretta Lynch will make the decision on whether to seek indictments, if the FBI finds criminal wrongdoing.

But the stance of the FBI director is critical.  Will he stand for justice in the event of a cover-up, or will he just go along to keep his job?  I sense that Comey, in what could be the most important case of his career, will not go along.  I could be wrong.  

Comey is now speaking out about the rise in violent crime, and he isn't politically correct.  From the Daily Caller:

FBI director James Comey lent credence to a controversial theory Friday when he said during a speech in Chicago that violent crime has spiked in many big U.S. cities this year because police officers are worried that performing their policing duties puts them at risk of being accused of a crime themselves.

“I don’t know whether that explains it entirely, but I do have a strong sense that some part of the explanation is a chill wind that has blown through American law enforcement over the last year,” Comey said at a forum held at the University of Chicago Law School, according to news reports.

Violent crime — including homicides — have increased dramatically in many large cities, Comey said, pointing to Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington and Baltimore by name.

The cause of the spike is the center of intense debate. Some have dubbed the phenomenon the “Ferguson effect” — a reference to the fatal police-involved shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo. on Aug. 9, 2014. The shooting sparked mass protests and violence in the St. Louis suburb.

Comey nails it:

He cited cheaper heroin, guns falling into criminals’ hands and street gangs’ turf battles as plausible theories but circled back to the explanation he hears from police officers. They tell him of the “taunting” they receive from youth when answering police calls, he said.

“They told me, ‘We feel like we’re under siege and we don’t feel much like getting out of our cars,'” Comey said, according to the Associated Press.

COMMENT:  Of course this is a major factor in the dramatic rise in crime.  And the taunting of police begins with snide comments from our left-wing president, Barack Obama, who started his administration by taunting the Cambridge, Massachusetts, police department over an incident involving an academic friend of his.

I'm glad Comey said what he said.  It gives me confidence that he is no prisoner of political correctness.  Are you watching, Hillary?

October 24,  2015     Permalink